Path to Postseason: After Delaware
I'm scrapping the original formula. UMass needs to beat URI. That's a gimme. Lose and they're out. Win and they've got a pretty good shot. How good?
I hope to determine that below.
The 20-team field has 10 automatic bids for:
Colonial Athletic Association (CAA)
Big South - (New yhis year)
Mid Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)
Missouri Valley (MVC)
Northeast Conference (NEC) New this year)
Ohio Valey (OVC)
Southern Conference (SoCon)
And 10 at-large bids.
Four automatic bids have been clinched already:
CLINCHED AUTO BIDS (4)
Robert Morris - NEC
Lehigh - Patriot
Northern Iowa - MVC
Appalachian State - SoCon
COULD STEAL AN AT-LARGE IF IT GETS AUTO
Florida A&M 7-3 at Bethune Cookman The Rattlers could still get the MEAC auto bid, but have no chance at an at-large. Every bubble team will be rooting for Bethune Cookman
W: Del State, Howard, SavState, Norfolk State, MorganState, NCA&T
L: South Carolina State, TennState, Miami
! - Could still earn and auto bid
(second record in parenthesis means record against Division I teams which is what NCAA recognizes)
TEAM IN BOLDALL CAPS IS AN FBS OPPONENT
Team in Bolditalics is non Division I win
IN WITH AN AT LARGE IF THEY DON'T GET AUTO (6)
! Delaware 9-1 (8-1 - NonD1 win over West Chester)
Remaining Games: Nov. 20 vs. Nova
W: West Chester, South Dakota State, Duquesne, Richmond, JMU, Maine, URI, Towson, UMass
!. Jacksonville State 9-1 at Tenn Tech
Remaining: Nov. 20 at Tenn Tech
W: MISSISSIPPI, Chattanooga, Georgia State, E. Illinois, Murray State, Tenn Martin, Tenn State, Austin Peay, SE Missouri
L: Eastern Kentucky
!. SE Missouri State 9-2 (8-2) Regular season complete
W: Murray State, So. Ill, TennTech, Eastern Illinois, Tenn State, Austin Peay, EKU, Tenn Martin,SW Baptist
L: Ball State, Jacksoville State
Wofford 8-2 (7-2) vs. Chattanooga
W: Charleston Southern, Union, Furman, GaSouthern, Western Carolina, Elon, Citadel, Samford
L: OHIO, App State
!. Bethune-Cookman 10-0 (9-0) vs. FAMU -
W: D2, SavState, Norfolk State, MorganState, Delaware State, Soouth CarolinaState, NC Central, NC A&T, Hampton, Howard
I'm not 100 percent confident that B-C gets in if they lose this weekend. They've got only one semi-decent win (SC State. But I think they'd still get in.
!. Stephen F. Austin (8-2) vs. Northwestern State
W: Albany, Northern Iowa, Lamar, McNeese, CentralArk, SamHouston, Nichols State, SE Louisianna
L: TEXAS A&M, Texas State
BUBBLE - 16 teams for 10 slots
!. Montana State 8-2 (7-2) at Montana
W: Fort Lewis, Drake, Eastern Washington, SacState, Portland State, Northern Colorado, Idaho State, Weber State
L: WASHINGTON STATE, Northern Arizona
!. Eastern Washington 8-2 (7-2) vs. Idaho State
W: Central Washington, Montana, Weber State, Northern Arizona, Northern Colorado, Sat State, Portland State, Southern Utah
L: NEVADA, Montana State
I think the Eagles are in. A bad loss to close the season, might make the committee pause, but there's too many good wins here to ignore
!William & Mary 7-3 vs. Richmond
W: VMI, ODU, Maine, Villanova, URI, Delaware, New Hampshire
L: UMass, NORTH CAROLINA, JMU
Pretty sure the Tribe is a lock
!. SC State 8-2 (7-2) at NC A&T -
W: MVSU, Benedict, FAMU, Norfolk State, Hampton, Del State, Howard, Morgan State
L:Georgia Tech, Bethune Cookman
The Bulldogs have no good wins and a No good wins, plus a D2 win, Nice record, but no lock.
North Dakota State 7-3 at Missouri St
W: KANSAS, Morgan State, SoDakota, YTown, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, South Dakota State
L: No. Iowa, Western Ill, Ill State
A win Saturday should make them a sure thing.
! Liberty 7-3 vs. Stony Brook
W: St. Francis, BALL STATE, Sav. State, CharSouth, VMI, Presbeterian, GardWebb
L: Robert Morris, JMU, Coastal
Ball State is a FBS win, but not an impressive one. Saturday is a must win to be considered.
Montana 7-3 (6-3) vs. Montana St -
W:Western State, Sac State, Northern Colorado, Idaho State, Portland State, Northern Ariz, North Dakota
L: Cal Poly, Eastern Michigan, Weber State
Montana is in legitimate danger of being left out. The Grizz has only six Division I wins and no good ones.
New Hampshire 6-4 vs. Towson
W: CCSU, Lehigh, Richmond*, JMU, UMass, Villanova
L: PITT, URI, Maine, W&M
The Wildcats have rebounded nicely from two bad early losses. A win over a bad Towson team should be enough.
UMass 6-4 at URI
W: William & Mary, Holy Cross, Stony Brook, Towson, JMU, Maine
L: MICHIGAN, Richmond, UNH, Delaware
On paper no bad losses and one trememdous win. They'll have a good shot with a win.
Georgia Southern 6-4 at Furman
W: SavState, Coastal, Elon, Citadel, App State, WCarolina
L: NAVY, Wofford, Chattanooga, Samford
GSU is much like UMass with a good win (App State) and decent win (Elon) and acceptable losses
! McNeese 6-4 at Central Arkansas
W: Lamar, Northwestern State, SE La, Nichols, SamHouston State, Texas State
L: MISSOURI, Cal Poly, Stephen F. Austin, LSU
They need to win Saturday to have a shot. No standout wins.
Western Illinois 6-4 vs. Northern Iowa
W: Valpo, SamHouSt, IndianaState, North Dakota State, Youngstown, Illinois State
L: PURDUE, South Dakota State, Missouri State, Southern Illinois
Chattanooga 6-4 at Wofford
W: EKU, WCarolina, Citadel, GaSouthern, Furman, Samford
L: App State, Jacksonville State, Elon, AUBURN
Tough game to win for the Mocs.
Richmond 6-4 at William & Mary
W: Elon, Coastal Carolina, UMass, Towson, JMU, URI
L: Virginia, Delaware, New Hampshire Villanova
Amazing that the Spiders are still afloat. Tough one on Saturday to keep ride alive.
Villanova (6-4) at Delaware
W: Lehigh, Towson, Penn, Maine, JMU, Richmond
L: Temple, W&M, Rhode Island
The defending champs are in danger
Weber State 6-4 at Texas Tech
W: Northern Colorado, UC Davis, Idaho State, PortState, Montana, Northern Arizona
L: Eastern Washington, BC, Sac State, Montana State
Weber State's two FBS games are too many to keep them alive.
Bethune Cookman vs FAMU, 2:30 - A B-C win gets them the auto bid and knocks FAMU out. Nobody on the bubble wants B-C getting an at-large bid
South Carolina State at NC A&T, 1:30 - SC State is chasing an at-large. Getting upset would eliminate them
Chattanooga at Wofford, 1:30 - A Wofford win ends the Mocs
Georgia Southern at Furman, 2 - A Paladin win ends the Eagles
Northern Iowa at Western Illinois, 2 - UNI can knock out Western Ill
Weber State at Texas Tech, 3 - Killer schedule is going to kill Weber.
Montana State at Montana, 2 - An MSU win would leave the perennially powerful Grizzlies without seven Division I wins
McNeese State at Central Arkansas, 4 - Cowboys are out with a loss.
Richmond at William & Mary, 3:30 - A Tribe win would bounce the Spiders. A Richmond win would hurt W&M
Villanova at Delaware noon- A Hen win would bounce Nova.
UMass at URI, 12:30 - A URI win ends UMass
Towson at UNH, noon - A Towson upset would bounce New Hampshire
Stony Brook at Liberty, 3:30 - A Stony Brook win likely KOs Liberty